Sage

Helping impactful communities figure out what's true

Acting Director

Founding Advisor

Founding Advisor

Founding Advisor

Visual explainers on AI progress and its risks, for everyone

A visual explainer on the rate and risks of LLM progress

The fastest way to track your predictions

The fastest way to track your predictions

Track your predictions, right where your team works

Instantly make and embed predictions, in Google Docs and anywhere else on the web

Practice assigning credences to outcomes with a quick feedback loop

Predict past events to rapidly practise forecasting

Team up with your friends to play our monthly estimation quiz

Answer trivia questions to calibrate your uncertainty

Turn any flashcard deck into a calibration training tool