Member of technical staff: Forecasting tools

Remote • Full-time • $100k-$150k

Sage is looking for two members of technical staff to design, build, grow, and evaluate our forecasting tools: Fatebook, Quantified Intuitions, and future experiments.

Strong candidates might be at least two of:

1. Skilled web developer (Typescript, Next, React)

2. Experienced forecaster (e.g. on sites like Metaculus or Manifold)

3. Experience growing a startup

If you have any questions, get in touch by email or give anonymous feedback.

About our forecasting tools

We aim to help people make better decisions through more accurate forecasts (implicit or explicit), via training in environments with fast feedback loops. So far, we've built:

1. Fatebook: The fastest way to track your predictions

   • Designed for individuals and orgs aiming to have a large positive impact. Fatebook has ~450 Monthly Active Users on the web, by API, and through Slack and Chrome integrations.

2. Quantified Intuitions: Practice assigning credences to outcomes with a quick feedback loop

   • The Estimation Game: A monthly Fermi estimation game, designed for teams. Played by around 200 teams per month, created as an off-the-shelf event for groups, workplaces and conferences to run

   • Pastcasting: Predict past events to rapidly practice forecasting

   • Calibration: A calibration training game, with decks of questions on various EA-relevant topics

About this role

Things you might be doing in this role

• Designing and building Fatebook features, e.g., honing the UX, building enterprise support

• Conceptualizing and prototyping new experimental tools, e.g. using AI for epistemics a la FutureSearch

• Talking to users

• Strategizing about how to grow Fatebook

• Measuring our impact

• Team structure: one team member will be project lead, and manage a team of 2

You might be a good fit for this role if

• You're a skilled web developer - you could likely get hired at FAANG if you wanted to

• You've spent >40 hours forecasting on sites like Metaculus or Manifold Markets

• You have hands-on startup experience

• You want to work fast, experiment, and wear many hats

• You care deeply about the impact of your work

You don't need to meet all of the above to be a good fit. These are attributes we want the team as a whole to have, but we expect each team member will be stronger on some than others. If you're unsure, we'd strongly recommend applying!

Our tech stack

Fatebook (GitHub) and Quantified Intuitions (GitHub) are built with Typescript, Next, React, Prisma, Tailwind and TRPC.

Salary and benefits

• The salary range is $100,000 to $150,000, depending on experience

• The role is full-time and can be fully remote, or you can work with Adam in London or potentially other team members elsewhere (e.g. Bay Area or DC)

• We may be able to sponsor US/UK visas, or you can work remotely from any country

• We'll bring the team together for retreats ~twice a year

• Unlimited paid time off (we recommend at least 4-6 weeks per year)

• We'll provide medical, dental, and vision insurance, coworking office seats, conference travel, and tech expenses

• Your mentorship and personal development is a priority. We'll figure out what's best for you together - e.g., personal dev goals and review, pair programming, code review, weekly meetings, help finding external mentors

Applying for this role

Apply here.

The application process will involve a few stages:

1. Apply
2. Coding test (2hr)
3. Take-home task (4-8hrs, paid)
4. Interview (1hr)
5. Work trial (paid, in-person in London by default, or we can find an alternative if this doesn't work for you)
6. Offer

You can also leave feedback on this role, optionally anonymous. Thank you - this will help us improve our hiring process.

We're an equal opportunity employer and strongly encourage candidates from all backgrounds to apply. If you are excited about this role but are unsure about whether you're the right fit, we encourage you to submit an application.

About us

Sage was founded in 2022. We build tools to make sense of the future. We run two projects: AI Digest, and our forecasting tools (Fatebook and Quantified Intuitions).

We're a small team: Adam Binks runs Sage full-time, and Eli Lifland, Misha Yagudin and Aaron Ho actively advise part-time. We've spent the last couple of years experimenting and building, startup-style. Now we're ready to expand both the forecasting tools team and the AI Digest team, so we can experiment faster, learn more, build more, and deliver on our mission.

Sage is funded by Open Philanthropy and individual donations. We're a 501(c)(3) charity registered in the US.